If the H1 figure were simply repeated in the second half of the year, total approvals would reach 3,092 — 41% below the 2025 figure and 46% below the record 5,776 permits issued in 2024.
Despite the decline in volumes, approval rates remained consistently high, ranging from 96% to 98%. This suggests that the contraction has occurred primarily at the filing stage rather than as a result of more applications being rejected.
The figures cover the five residence categories that Panama has reported consistently: the Friendly Nations Visa (FNV), the Jubilados y Pensionados permit for applicants with independent means, the Qualified Investor Visa (QIV), and two solvencia propia categories based respectively on fixed deposits and real estate.
Panama does not publish figures for every residence route. Smaller categories disappear from the published data when their volumes fall below the reporting threshold. Their absence therefore cannot be treated as zero approvals, and they have been excluded from the calculations throughout for consistency.
Friendly Nations Visa approaches its lowest level on record
The Friendly Nations Visa accounted for 1,011 approvals in the first half of 2026. On a simple annualized basis, that would produce 2,022 approvals for the year — just 15 above the program's lowest annual total, recorded in 2020 at 2,007.
A second-half result below 996 approvals would make 2026 the weakest FNV year reported by Panama since 2015. Conversely, more than 1,109 approvals in H2 would move the year above 2023 and make it the third-lowest result in the period. The difference between those two thresholds is only 113 approvals.
If the second half matches the first, FNV approvals would be 26% lower than in 2025, marking a second successive annual decline.
The program had recovered in 2024, when approvals reached 3,228, the strongest result since the 2021 peak of 4,318. That earlier surge was driven in part by applicants seeking to file before Panama raised the minimum investment requirement from US$5,000 to US$200,000.
Jordi Vilanova, president of Mercan Group, said that the program's two-year provisional residence period “has reduced some of the program’s historical appeal.” For investors comparing alternatives, he said, the Qualified Investor Visa offers a more straightforward proposition because it “provides permanent residency from the outset.”
Independent-means category records sharpest decline
The Jubilados y Pensionados category recorded 347 approvals in H1 2026, compared with 1,929 for the whole of 2025. Repeating the first-half figure would result in 694 approvals, representing a 64% decline and the category's lowest annual total since 2021.
The fall is significantly larger than that recorded by any other category. In absolute terms, approvals are down by 1,235 from the 2025 level — almost twice the combined peak output of the three reported investor categories outside the FNV.
The independent-means route had previously expanded every year since 2021. Approvals rose from 625 to 1,414, followed by 1,627, 1,917 and finally 1,929 in 2025. Four consecutive annual records would therefore come to an end if the first-half pace continued.
Vilanova warned against interpreting the decline automatically as evidence of weaker demand. A reduction in new filings and a processing backlog could produce similar approval figures, he said, while approval data alone “does not necessarily tell us which of those two factors is driving the decline.”
Qualified Investor Visa falls below recent levels
The Qualified Investor Visa produced 100 approvals during the first six months of 2026. At the same pace through December, the program would finish the year with 200 approvals, compared with 327 in both 2024 and 2025.
That would make 2026 the QIV's weakest year since 2023, when the category recorded 187 approvals.
Vilanova expects the QIV to “gradually to represent a larger share of Panama’s investment-migration market.” Mercan formalized an agreement with the Panamanian government in October 2025 to promote the program internationally.
The two solvencia propia routes also remained below their recent levels. The fixed-deposit category recorded 56 approvals in H1, implying 112 for the full year compared with 141 in 2025.
The real-estate route registered 32 approvals, which would translate into 64 for the year if the pace remains unchanged. That would be one approval above its 2023 low of 63 and the second-lowest result in an eleven-year series.
A procedural change affecting purchases on the secondary property market may be contributing to the weaker performance of the real-estate route.
Mikkel Thorup, chief executive of Expat Money, said buyers purchasing existing properties must now obtain an independent third-party audit and appraisal. The procedure is intended to establish the property's actual value and costs several thousand dollars.
According to Thorup's understanding, the requirement followed cases in which foreign companies acquired inexpensive tract housing and later resold the properties for US$300,000 after cosmetic improvements. The practice, he said, generated neither significant capital investment nor employment. Purchases made before construction do not face an equivalent requirement.
Taken together, the three reported investor categories outside the FNV would produce 376 approvals on a flat-line basis in 2026. That would be 32% below 2025 and 40% lower than their 2024 peak of 631. Their combined total in 2023 was lower still, at 355.
Two smaller categories — Ciudad del Saber and mixed investment — recorded no approvals in 2025 or during the first half of 2026.
Approval rates remain high despite lower volumes
Approval rates showed little sign of deterioration in H1 2026. The FNV recorded a 96% approval rate, while Jubilados y Pensionados and the fixed-deposit route each stood at 98%. Both the QIV and real-estate categories recorded 96%.
All five figures fall within the 93% to 100% range reported by Panama since 2022.
The combination of stable approval rates and lower overall volumes points more toward a reduction in the number of files reaching a decision than toward stricter screening standards.
The figures refer to approvals granted to principal applicants rather than the number of applications filed, and dependants are excluded.
Annualized figures remain projections
The full-year numbers used above are not official forecasts. Panama's immigration authorities do not publish comparable H1 and H2 figures for previous years, making it impossible to establish a historical seasonal pattern.
Accordingly, doubling the first-half result is simply a flat-line calculation. A stronger or weaker second half would change the annual total accordingly.
Processing times also differ significantly between categories. Under Decreto Ejecutivo 722, the QIV has a statutory decision period of 30 business days, meaning its approval figures are more closely connected to filing volumes. FNV applications, by contrast, undergo an assessment lasting several months before a provisional permit is issued.
Vilanova expects activity in the second half of the year to exceed H1 levels as international distribution and promotional efforts expand. Whether that will be enough to push total 2026 approvals above the 2025 level remains, in his words, “too early to say.”
Thorup reported a different experience on the ground. His team has been “extremely busy this year,” having already completed four investor trips to Panama, with a fifth scheduled within two weeks.
These observations are not necessarily inconsistent. Both point toward changes in the composition of demand rather than a broad withdrawal from Panama, while neither offers a definitive conclusion about the direction of new filings.
If first-half approval levels were simply repeated, Panama would finish 2026 with 3,092 capital-based residence approvals. That would make it the country's second-weakest year for this type of immigration since 2015. Only 2020, with 2,007 approvals, would be lower, while 2019 recorded 3,196.
If you're planning to obtain a residence permit, invest in a country's economy, or purchase foreign real estate, we invite you to a consultation with our company. During a personal online meeting, we'll discuss your questions in detail and create a step-by-step action plan for you.
Despite the decline in volumes, approval rates remained consistently high, ranging from 96% to 98%. This suggests that the contraction has occurred primarily at the filing stage rather than as a result of more applications being rejected.
The figures cover the five residence categories that Panama has reported consistently: the Friendly Nations Visa (FNV), the Jubilados y Pensionados permit for applicants with independent means, the Qualified Investor Visa (QIV), and two solvencia propia categories based respectively on fixed deposits and real estate.
Panama does not publish figures for every residence route. Smaller categories disappear from the published data when their volumes fall below the reporting threshold. Their absence therefore cannot be treated as zero approvals, and they have been excluded from the calculations throughout for consistency.
Friendly Nations Visa approaches its lowest level on record
The Friendly Nations Visa accounted for 1,011 approvals in the first half of 2026. On a simple annualized basis, that would produce 2,022 approvals for the year — just 15 above the program's lowest annual total, recorded in 2020 at 2,007.
A second-half result below 996 approvals would make 2026 the weakest FNV year reported by Panama since 2015. Conversely, more than 1,109 approvals in H2 would move the year above 2023 and make it the third-lowest result in the period. The difference between those two thresholds is only 113 approvals.
If the second half matches the first, FNV approvals would be 26% lower than in 2025, marking a second successive annual decline.
The program had recovered in 2024, when approvals reached 3,228, the strongest result since the 2021 peak of 4,318. That earlier surge was driven in part by applicants seeking to file before Panama raised the minimum investment requirement from US$5,000 to US$200,000.
Jordi Vilanova, president of Mercan Group, said that the program's two-year provisional residence period “has reduced some of the program’s historical appeal.” For investors comparing alternatives, he said, the Qualified Investor Visa offers a more straightforward proposition because it “provides permanent residency from the outset.”
Independent-means category records sharpest decline
The Jubilados y Pensionados category recorded 347 approvals in H1 2026, compared with 1,929 for the whole of 2025. Repeating the first-half figure would result in 694 approvals, representing a 64% decline and the category's lowest annual total since 2021.
The fall is significantly larger than that recorded by any other category. In absolute terms, approvals are down by 1,235 from the 2025 level — almost twice the combined peak output of the three reported investor categories outside the FNV.
The independent-means route had previously expanded every year since 2021. Approvals rose from 625 to 1,414, followed by 1,627, 1,917 and finally 1,929 in 2025. Four consecutive annual records would therefore come to an end if the first-half pace continued.
Vilanova warned against interpreting the decline automatically as evidence of weaker demand. A reduction in new filings and a processing backlog could produce similar approval figures, he said, while approval data alone “does not necessarily tell us which of those two factors is driving the decline.”
Qualified Investor Visa falls below recent levels
The Qualified Investor Visa produced 100 approvals during the first six months of 2026. At the same pace through December, the program would finish the year with 200 approvals, compared with 327 in both 2024 and 2025.
That would make 2026 the QIV's weakest year since 2023, when the category recorded 187 approvals.
Vilanova expects the QIV to “gradually to represent a larger share of Panama’s investment-migration market.” Mercan formalized an agreement with the Panamanian government in October 2025 to promote the program internationally.
The two solvencia propia routes also remained below their recent levels. The fixed-deposit category recorded 56 approvals in H1, implying 112 for the full year compared with 141 in 2025.
The real-estate route registered 32 approvals, which would translate into 64 for the year if the pace remains unchanged. That would be one approval above its 2023 low of 63 and the second-lowest result in an eleven-year series.
A procedural change affecting purchases on the secondary property market may be contributing to the weaker performance of the real-estate route.
Mikkel Thorup, chief executive of Expat Money, said buyers purchasing existing properties must now obtain an independent third-party audit and appraisal. The procedure is intended to establish the property's actual value and costs several thousand dollars.
According to Thorup's understanding, the requirement followed cases in which foreign companies acquired inexpensive tract housing and later resold the properties for US$300,000 after cosmetic improvements. The practice, he said, generated neither significant capital investment nor employment. Purchases made before construction do not face an equivalent requirement.
Taken together, the three reported investor categories outside the FNV would produce 376 approvals on a flat-line basis in 2026. That would be 32% below 2025 and 40% lower than their 2024 peak of 631. Their combined total in 2023 was lower still, at 355.
Two smaller categories — Ciudad del Saber and mixed investment — recorded no approvals in 2025 or during the first half of 2026.
Approval rates remain high despite lower volumes
Approval rates showed little sign of deterioration in H1 2026. The FNV recorded a 96% approval rate, while Jubilados y Pensionados and the fixed-deposit route each stood at 98%. Both the QIV and real-estate categories recorded 96%.
All five figures fall within the 93% to 100% range reported by Panama since 2022.
The combination of stable approval rates and lower overall volumes points more toward a reduction in the number of files reaching a decision than toward stricter screening standards.
The figures refer to approvals granted to principal applicants rather than the number of applications filed, and dependants are excluded.
Annualized figures remain projections
The full-year numbers used above are not official forecasts. Panama's immigration authorities do not publish comparable H1 and H2 figures for previous years, making it impossible to establish a historical seasonal pattern.
Accordingly, doubling the first-half result is simply a flat-line calculation. A stronger or weaker second half would change the annual total accordingly.
Processing times also differ significantly between categories. Under Decreto Ejecutivo 722, the QIV has a statutory decision period of 30 business days, meaning its approval figures are more closely connected to filing volumes. FNV applications, by contrast, undergo an assessment lasting several months before a provisional permit is issued.
Vilanova expects activity in the second half of the year to exceed H1 levels as international distribution and promotional efforts expand. Whether that will be enough to push total 2026 approvals above the 2025 level remains, in his words, “too early to say.”
Thorup reported a different experience on the ground. His team has been “extremely busy this year,” having already completed four investor trips to Panama, with a fifth scheduled within two weeks.
These observations are not necessarily inconsistent. Both point toward changes in the composition of demand rather than a broad withdrawal from Panama, while neither offers a definitive conclusion about the direction of new filings.
If first-half approval levels were simply repeated, Panama would finish 2026 with 3,092 capital-based residence approvals. That would make it the country's second-weakest year for this type of immigration since 2015. Only 2020, with 2,007 approvals, would be lower, while 2019 recorded 3,196.
If you're planning to obtain a residence permit, invest in a country's economy, or purchase foreign real estate, we invite you to a consultation with our company. During a personal online meeting, we'll discuss your questions in detail and create a step-by-step action plan for you.